Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Halcyon Technology Public Company Limited (HTECH.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.31 - $12.10$8.64
Multi-Stage$10.16 - $11.16$10.65
Blended Fair Value$9.64
Current Price$2.64
Upside265.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.97%3.07%0.100.060.180.160.070.160.220.220.100.10
YoY Growth--53.84%-63.89%11.11%116.01%-53.13%-27.27%0.00%110.89%9.09%29.42%
Dividend Yield--3.18%2.93%5.20%3.36%2.02%11.76%4.40%3.67%1.09%3.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)121.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)75.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.3315.219.12
Cash Retained (M)75.1875.1875.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.33-15.21-9.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.8559.9766.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)300.00300.00300.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Fair Value$6.31$8.64$12.10
Upside / Downside139.16%227.10%358.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)121.67124.29126.97129.71132.51135.37139.43
Payout Ratio38.21%48.56%58.92%69.28%79.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.4860.3674.8289.87105.53121.83128.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Year 1 PV (M)56.2056.7557.31
Year 2 PV (M)64.8566.1467.44
Year 3 PV (M)72.5374.7076.92
Year 4 PV (M)79.3082.4885.76
Year 5 PV (M)85.2389.5394.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,688.812,824.372,965.34
Equity Value (M)3,046.923,193.973,346.76
Shares Outstanding (M)300.00300.00300.00
Fair Value$10.16$10.65$11.16
Upside / Downside284.71%303.28%322.57%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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