Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $17.87 - $25.49 | $21.61 |
| Multi-Stage | $30.27 - $33.22 | $31.72 |
| Blended Fair Value | $26.67 | |
| Current Price | $27.67 | |
| Upside | -3.63% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 1.76% | -1.38% | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 1.02 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.90 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 1.21% | 3.66% | 0.00% | 10.55% | -5.92% | 2.78% | 7.90% | 0.56% | 4.20% | -31.36% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.12% | 3.47% | 3.79% | 3.73% | 2.68% | 4.27% | 4.77% | 4.28% | 4.02% | 5.98% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,529.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,088.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,441.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 505.80 | 316.13 | 189.68 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,441.00 | 1,441.00 | 1,441.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -505.80 | -316.13 | -189.68 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 935.20 | 1,124.88 | 1,251.33 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 953.75 | 953.75 | 953.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.98 | 1.18 | 1.31 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.98 | 1.18 | 1.31 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.12 | 2.32 | 2.45 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.48% | -1.48% | -0.48% |
| Fair Value | $17.87 | $21.61 | $25.49 |
| Upside / Downside | -35.42% | -21.89% | -7.88% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,529.00 | 2,491.60 | 2,454.76 | 2,418.45 | 2,382.69 | 2,347.45 | 2,417.88 |
| Payout Ratio | 43.02% | 52.42% | 61.81% | 71.21% | 80.60% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,088.00 | 1,306.02 | 1,517.35 | 1,722.14 | 1,920.55 | 2,112.71 | 2,236.54 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.48% | -1.48% | -0.48% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,184.95 | 1,197.10 | 1,209.25 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,249.08 | 1,274.83 | 1,300.84 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,286.25 | 1,326.23 | 1,367.02 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,301.47 | 1,355.68 | 1,411.57 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,298.98 | 1,366.96 | 1,437.76 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 22,550.26 | 23,730.39 | 24,959.41 |
| Equity Value (M) | 28,871.00 | 30,251.19 | 31,685.86 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 953.75 | 953.75 | 953.75 |
| Fair Value | $30.27 | $31.72 | $33.22 |
| Upside / Downside | 9.40% | 14.63% | 20.07% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
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