Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Heineken N.V. (HNK1.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.13 - $240.15$144.26
Multi-Stage$125.71 - $137.73$131.61
Blended Fair Value$137.93
Current Price$74.02
Upside86.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.74%5.19%2.132.371.951.411.041.691.941.801.831.62
YoY Growth---10.19%21.47%38.07%36.54%-38.70%-12.75%7.81%-1.94%13.42%25.73%
Dividend Yield--3.10%2.61%2.22%1.43%1.14%1.78%2.51%2.07%2.57%2.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,498.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,076.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)421.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)499.60312.25187.35
Cash Retained (M)421.50421.50421.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-499.60-312.25-187.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)-78.10109.25234.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)562.56562.56562.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.190.42
LTM Dividend per Share3.693.693.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.190.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.553.894.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Fair Value$96.13$144.26$240.15
Upside / Downside29.86%94.89%224.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,498.002,584.692,674.392,767.202,863.242,962.603,051.48
Payout Ratio83.13%84.50%85.88%87.25%88.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,076.502,184.102,296.662,414.402,537.552,666.342,822.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Year 1 PV (M)2,035.612,055.482,075.34
Year 2 PV (M)1,995.002,034.132,073.64
Year 3 PV (M)1,954.702,012.492,071.41
Year 4 PV (M)1,914.741,990.582,068.66
Year 5 PV (M)1,875.141,968.442,065.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)60,942.2263,974.4767,126.25
Equity Value (M)70,717.4274,035.6077,480.72
Shares Outstanding (M)562.56562.56562.56
Fair Value$125.71$131.61$137.73
Upside / Downside69.83%77.80%86.07%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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