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Hagerty, Inc. (HGTY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.79 - $5.60$4.66
Multi-Stage$6.74 - $7.42$7.08
Blended Fair Value$5.87
Current Price$12.04
Upside-51.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.060.000.000.050.040.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%1.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.69%0.00%0.00%0.42%0.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.665.413.25
Cash Retained (M)37.7037.7037.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.66-5.41-3.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.0432.2834.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)89.9889.9889.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.360.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.360.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.45
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.79$4.66$5.60
Upside / Downside-68.49%-61.29%-53.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.3042.8642.4442.0141.5941.1842.41
Payout Ratio12.93%28.35%43.76%59.17%74.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.6012.1518.5724.8631.0237.0639.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.1411.2611.37
Year 2 PV (M)15.6215.9416.26
Year 3 PV (M)19.1719.7720.37
Year 4 PV (M)21.9422.8523.79
Year 5 PV (M)24.0425.2926.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)514.88541.69569.60
Equity Value (M)606.79636.79667.99
Shares Outstanding (M)89.9889.9889.98
Fair Value$6.74$7.08$7.42
Upside / Downside-43.99%-41.22%-38.34%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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