Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.45 - $47.83$34.54
Multi-Stage$28.93 - $31.64$30.26
Blended Fair Value$32.40
Current Price$24.19
Upside33.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.56%9.44%0.920.890.850.840.840.900.750.530.630.46
YoY Growth--3.10%4.51%1.91%0.27%-6.63%19.84%40.90%-15.13%35.52%23.46%
Dividend Yield--3.79%4.71%3.99%3.35%2.96%4.48%2.44%1.73%2.53%2.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.447.154.29
Cash Retained (M)24.8724.8724.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.44-7.15-4.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.4217.7220.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.5034.5034.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.510.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.940.940.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.510.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate2.85%3.85%4.85%
Fair Value$25.45$34.54$47.83
Upside / Downside5.19%42.79%97.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.2259.4361.7164.0966.5669.1271.19
Payout Ratio56.54%63.23%69.92%76.62%83.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.3537.5843.1549.1055.4562.2165.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate2.85%3.85%4.85%
Year 1 PV (M)34.3934.7235.06
Year 2 PV (M)36.1436.8537.56
Year 3 PV (M)37.6438.7539.88
Year 4 PV (M)38.9040.4342.01
Year 5 PV (M)39.9441.9243.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)811.02851.23893.01
Equity Value (M)998.041,043.911,091.50
Shares Outstanding (M)34.5034.5034.50
Fair Value$28.93$30.26$31.64
Upside / Downside19.60%25.10%30.80%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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