Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hera S.p.A. (HER.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.45 - $69.26$64.90
Multi-Stage$10.31 - $11.28$10.79
Blended Fair Value$37.84
Current Price$3.83
Upside888.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.64%6.12%0.170.160.150.120.100.100.100.100.100.10
YoY Growth--4.06%8.93%25.14%19.08%-1.87%-0.86%7.45%-3.09%0.28%5.54%
Dividend Yield--4.28%5.11%5.81%3.60%3.10%3.16%3.21%3.26%3.83%3.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)506.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)261.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)245.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)101.2663.2937.97
Cash Retained (M)245.00245.00245.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-101.26-63.29-37.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)143.74181.71207.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,453.891,453.891,453.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.45$64.90$69.26
Upside / Downside669.01%1,594.59%1,708.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)506.30539.21574.26611.58651.34693.67714.49
Payout Ratio51.61%59.29%66.97%74.64%82.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)261.30319.69384.56456.51536.19624.31660.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)297.36300.18303.00
Year 2 PV (M)332.72339.06345.46
Year 3 PV (M)367.40377.94388.69
Year 4 PV (M)401.39416.83432.71
Year 5 PV (M)434.72455.71477.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,156.3513,791.8014,451.58
Equity Value (M)14,989.9415,681.5316,398.95
Shares Outstanding (M)1,453.891,453.891,453.89
Fair Value$10.31$10.79$11.28
Upside / Downside169.20%181.62%194.50%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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