Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $54.72 - $87.19 | $69.47 |
| Multi-Stage | $77.85 - $85.45 | $81.58 |
| Blended Fair Value | $75.53 | |
| Current Price | $33.37 | |
| Upside | 126.33% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 9.43% | 1.06 | 1.02 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 4.17% | 4.15% | 5.86% | 5.29% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 2.10% | 5.70% | 12.06% | 26.46% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.19% | 3.64% | 3.04% | 3.18% | 4.47% | 0.00% | 2.77% | 2.63% | 2.79% | 2.23% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,701.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 556.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,145.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 540.20 | 337.63 | 202.58 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,145.00 | 2,145.00 | 2,145.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -540.20 | -337.63 | -202.58 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,604.80 | 1,807.38 | 1,942.43 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 516.18 | 516.18 | 516.18 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 3.11 | 3.50 | 3.76 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 3.11 | 3.50 | 3.76 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.19 | 4.58 | 4.84 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.29% | 8.29% | 8.29% |
| Growth Rate | 0.60% | 1.60% | 2.60% |
| Fair Value | $54.72 | $69.47 | $87.19 |
| Upside / Downside | 63.98% | 108.19% | 161.27% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,701.00 | 2,744.12 | 2,787.93 | 2,832.45 | 2,877.67 | 2,923.61 | 3,011.32 |
| Payout Ratio | 20.58% | 34.47% | 48.35% | 62.23% | 76.12% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 556.00 | 945.84 | 1,347.99 | 1,762.74 | 2,190.39 | 2,631.25 | 2,785.47 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.29% | 8.29% | 8.29% |
| Growth Rate | 0.60% | 1.60% | 2.60% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 864.82 | 873.42 | 882.01 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,126.94 | 1,149.46 | 1,172.20 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,347.44 | 1,388.02 | 1,429.42 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,530.91 | 1,592.70 | 1,656.33 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,681.50 | 1,766.75 | 1,855.43 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 33,635.03 | 35,340.38 | 37,114.21 |
| Equity Value (M) | 40,186.64 | 42,110.73 | 44,109.60 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 516.18 | 516.18 | 516.18 |
| Fair Value | $77.85 | $81.58 | $85.45 |
| Upside / Downside | 133.30% | 144.48% | 156.08% |
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