Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $41.51 - $64.22 | $52.05 |
| Multi-Stage | $95.91 - $105.50 | $100.61 |
| Blended Fair Value | $76.33 | |
| Current Price | $30.30 | |
| Upside | 151.91% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 143.14% | 22.83% | 4.95 | 2.20 | 2.77 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.33 | 0.48 | 0.94 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 124.51% | -20.38% | 2,459.62% | 211.67% | -40.41% | 53.76% | -88.51% | -31.17% | -49.29% | 49.18% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 16.50% | 5.82% | 9.89% | 0.25% | 0.18% | 0.78% | 0.41% | 4.02% | 6.61% | 18.49% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 40.75 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 25.80 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 14.94 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 8.15 | 5.09 | 3.06 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 14.94 | 14.94 | 14.94 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -8.15 | -5.09 | -3.06 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 6.79 | 9.85 | 11.89 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 9.13 | 9.13 | 9.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.74 | 1.08 | 1.30 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.83 | 2.83 | 2.83 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.74 | 1.08 | 1.30 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.57 | 3.90 | 4.13 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.43% | 6.43% | 6.43% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $41.51 | $52.05 | $64.22 |
| Upside / Downside | 37.01% | 71.77% | 111.96% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 40.75 | 40.34 | 39.94 | 39.54 | 39.14 | 38.75 | 39.91 |
| Payout Ratio | 63.33% | 68.66% | 74.00% | 79.33% | 84.67% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 25.80 | 27.70 | 29.55 | 31.37 | 33.14 | 34.88 | 36.92 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.43% | 6.43% | 6.43% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 25.76 | 26.03 | 26.29 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 25.57 | 26.09 | 26.62 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 25.24 | 26.02 | 26.82 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 24.80 | 25.83 | 26.89 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 24.28 | 25.54 | 26.86 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 750.37 | 789.45 | 830.13 |
| Equity Value (M) | 876.03 | 918.96 | 963.61 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 9.13 | 9.13 | 9.13 |
| Fair Value | $95.91 | $100.61 | $105.50 |
| Upside / Downside | 216.54% | 232.05% | 248.19% |
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| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
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