Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.78 - $6.96$5.84
Multi-Stage$7.85 - $8.64$8.24
Blended Fair Value$7.04
Current Price$26.23
Upside-73.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS7.49%0.00%0.570.610.490.280.170.400.370.000.000.00
YoY Growth---6.95%24.73%77.48%60.47%-56.58%8.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.68%3.83%3.07%1.73%1.08%2.48%2.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.055.033.02
Cash Retained (M)39.9439.9439.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.05-5.03-3.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.8934.9136.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.6762.6762.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.560.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.560.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.78$5.84$6.96
Upside / Downside-81.78%-77.75%-73.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.2439.8439.4439.0438.6538.2739.41
Payout Ratio0.75%18.60%36.45%54.30%72.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.307.4114.3721.2027.8934.4436.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6.766.836.89
Year 2 PV (M)11.9612.2012.45
Year 3 PV (M)16.0916.5817.09
Year 4 PV (M)19.3020.1020.92
Year 5 PV (M)21.7422.8724.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)416.03437.69460.25
Equity Value (M)491.87516.27541.66
Shares Outstanding (M)62.6762.6762.67
Fair Value$7.85$8.24$8.64
Upside / Downside-70.08%-68.59%-67.05%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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