Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Glanbia plc (GL9.IR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.23 - $288.16$270.03
Multi-Stage$44.63 - $48.85$46.70
Blended Fair Value$158.37
Current Price$12.93
Upside1,124.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.04%13.00%0.400.370.320.310.300.280.290.160.140.13
YoY Growth--7.41%15.17%4.84%2.42%5.79%-2.24%85.37%10.22%9.75%10.22%
Dividend Yield--2.89%2.49%2.71%2.50%2.90%2.77%1.77%1.06%0.90%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)380.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)189.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.0747.5428.53
Cash Retained (M)189.32189.32189.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.07-47.54-28.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)113.25141.78160.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)261.37261.37261.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.540.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.540.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.04%6.04%7.04%
Fair Value$96.23$270.03$288.16
Upside / Downside644.20%1,988.42%2,128.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)380.34403.30427.66453.49480.87509.91525.21
Payout Ratio50.22%58.18%66.13%74.09%82.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.02234.64282.83335.99394.53458.92485.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.04%6.04%7.04%
Year 1 PV (M)218.63220.71222.79
Year 2 PV (M)245.55250.25254.99
Year 3 PV (M)271.80279.64287.63
Year 4 PV (M)297.39308.88320.70
Year 5 PV (M)322.33337.97354.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,309.2810,809.4511,328.84
Equity Value (M)11,664.9812,206.8912,769.16
Shares Outstanding (M)261.37261.37261.37
Fair Value$44.63$46.70$48.85
Upside / Downside245.17%261.20%277.84%

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