Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,102.57 - $7,804.79$6,365.62
Multi-Stage$11,415.80 - $12,536.69$11,965.35
Blended Fair Value$9,165.49
Current Price$13,975.00
Upside-34.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001,200.002,250.002,600.000.002,600.002,600.002,600.002,600.00800.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-46.67%-13.46%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%225.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.10%8.65%8.23%0.00%6.33%3.14%3.59%3.97%1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,095,373.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)962,044.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)133,329.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)219,074.60136,921.6382,152.98
Cash Retained (M)133,329.00133,329.00133,329.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-219,074.60-136,921.63-82,152.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)-85,745.60-3,592.6351,176.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,924.091,924.091,924.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share-44.56-1.8726.60
LTM Dividend per Share500.00500.00500.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-44.56-1.8726.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend455.44498.13526.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5,102.57$6,365.62$7,804.79
Upside / Downside-63.49%-54.45%-44.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,095,373.001,084,419.271,073,575.081,062,839.331,052,210.931,041,688.821,072,939.49
Payout Ratio87.83%88.26%88.70%89.13%89.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)962,044.00957,134.32952,226.62947,321.37942,419.00937,519.94992,469.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)887,580.29896,637.23905,694.17
Year 2 PV (M)818,860.35835,657.05852,624.27
Year 3 PV (M)755,442.86778,805.44802,644.79
Year 4 PV (M)696,920.25725,804.33755,577.09
Year 5 PV (M)642,916.14676,394.27711,252.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,163,290.7919,109,095.4820,093,896.34
Equity Value (M)21,965,010.6723,022,393.8124,121,689.39
Shares Outstanding (M)1,924.091,924.091,924.09
Fair Value$11,415.80$11,965.35$12,536.69
Upside / Downside-18.31%-14.38%-10.29%

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