Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Griffon Corporation (GFF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.08 - $32.17$23.21
Multi-Stage$15.67 - $17.06$16.35
Blended Fair Value$19.78
Current Price$76.15
Upside-74.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS22.26%17.89%0.850.762.862.700.370.310.291.060.220.19
YoY Growth--10.85%-73.24%5.63%639.12%17.96%6.24%-72.54%382.30%17.36%14.95%
Dividend Yield--1.11%1.07%4.69%7.56%1.38%1.64%1.55%10.95%1.17%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.226.393.83
Cash Retained (M)11.4211.4211.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.22-6.39-3.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.205.037.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.8446.8446.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.110.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.110.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate4.60%5.60%6.60%
Fair Value$17.08$23.21$32.17
Upside / Downside-77.57%-69.53%-57.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.1153.9756.9960.1863.5567.1069.12
Payout Ratio77.66%80.13%82.60%85.06%87.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.6943.2547.0751.1955.6260.3963.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate4.60%5.60%6.60%
Year 1 PV (M)38.9639.3339.71
Year 2 PV (M)38.2138.9439.69
Year 3 PV (M)37.4438.5239.63
Year 4 PV (M)36.6538.0739.54
Year 5 PV (M)35.8537.6039.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)546.81573.45601.13
Equity Value (M)733.93765.93799.10
Shares Outstanding (M)46.8446.8446.84
Fair Value$15.67$16.35$17.06
Upside / Downside-79.42%-78.53%-77.60%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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