Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.03 - $6.95 | $6.00 |
| Multi-Stage | $9.54 - $10.48 | $10.00 |
| Blended Fair Value | $8.00 | |
| Current Price | $27.82 | |
| Upside | -71.24% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -46.99% | -2.73% | 0.50 | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 0.60 | 11.99 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 0.36 | 4.86 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -3.10% | 2.87% | 3.63% | -18.77% | -95.01% | 3,347.47% | 2.84% | -4.95% | -92.67% | 633.66% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.89% | 2.07% | 2.71% | 2.21% | 2.20% | 60.48% | 1.58% | 1.64% | 1.26% | 23.65% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 570.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 313.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 257.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 114.00 | 71.25 | 42.75 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 257.00 | 257.00 | 257.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -114.00 | -71.25 | -42.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 143.00 | 185.75 | 214.25 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 623.75 | 623.75 | 623.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.85 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -4.73% | -3.73% | -2.73% |
| Fair Value | $5.03 | $6.00 | $6.95 |
| Upside / Downside | -81.90% | -78.44% | -75.02% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 570.00 | 548.71 | 528.22 | 508.50 | 489.51 | 471.23 | 485.37 |
| Payout Ratio | 54.91% | 61.93% | 68.95% | 75.96% | 82.98% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 313.00 | 339.82 | 364.20 | 386.28 | 406.21 | 424.11 | 448.96 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -4.73% | -3.73% | -2.73% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 308.24 | 311.48 | 314.71 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 299.66 | 305.99 | 312.38 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 288.30 | 297.48 | 306.84 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 275.00 | 286.73 | 298.84 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 260.44 | 274.40 | 288.96 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,521.30 | 4,763.64 | 5,016.25 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,952.96 | 6,239.72 | 6,537.98 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 623.75 | 623.75 | 623.75 |
| Fair Value | $9.54 | $10.00 | $10.48 |
| Upside / Downside | -65.69% | -64.04% | -62.32% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
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| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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