Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Greif, Inc. (GEF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$107.77 - $155.62$131.06
Multi-Stage$190.06 - $209.28$199.48
Blended Fair Value$165.27
Current Price$59.76
Upside176.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.62%0.24%1.822.182.102.011.911.881.871.801.781.78
YoY Growth---16.45%3.86%4.67%5.20%1.44%0.29%4.00%1.42%-0.10%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.05%3.56%3.35%2.81%3.22%4.06%4.64%4.62%3.00%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)840.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)101.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)738.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)168.00105.0063.00
Cash Retained (M)738.90738.90738.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-168.00-105.00-63.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)570.90633.90675.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.5055.5055.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.2911.4212.18
LTM Dividend per Share1.821.821.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.2911.4212.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.1113.2414.00
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate-2.62%-1.62%-0.62%
Fair Value$107.77$131.06$155.62
Upside / Downside80.33%119.31%160.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)840.00826.38812.98799.80786.84774.08797.30
Payout Ratio12.04%27.63%43.22%58.81%74.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)101.10228.32351.38470.40585.46696.67737.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate-2.62%-1.62%-0.62%
Year 1 PV (M)208.64210.78212.93
Year 2 PV (M)293.43299.48305.60
Year 3 PV (M)358.96370.13381.53
Year 4 PV (M)408.26425.29442.85
Year 5 PV (M)443.94467.21491.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,836.209,299.329,781.65
Equity Value (M)10,549.4311,072.2211,616.01
Shares Outstanding (M)55.5055.5055.50
Fair Value$190.06$199.48$209.28
Upside / Downside218.05%233.81%250.20%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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