Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Guardian Capital Group Limited (GCG-A.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$164.74 - $411.23$247.16
Multi-Stage$151.00 - $165.44$158.09
Blended Fair Value$202.62
Current Price$43.25
Upside368.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.99%17.24%1.471.310.960.770.690.640.550.460.400.36
YoY Growth--12.46%35.96%25.52%10.26%8.08%17.05%19.68%14.01%12.58%19.35%
Dividend Yield--3.65%2.69%2.21%1.92%2.35%3.50%2.28%1.88%1.56%1.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)145.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.3622.7313.64
Cash Retained (M)145.13145.13145.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.36-22.73-13.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.77122.40131.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.1924.1924.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.505.065.44
LTM Dividend per Share1.521.521.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.505.065.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.016.586.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate3.80%4.80%5.80%
Fair Value$164.74$247.16$411.23
Upside / Downside280.91%471.46%850.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.82190.56199.71209.30219.35229.89236.79
Payout Ratio20.18%34.14%48.11%62.07%76.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.6965.0796.08129.92166.79206.90219.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate3.80%4.80%5.80%
Year 1 PV (M)59.9060.4761.05
Year 2 PV (M)81.4283.0084.59
Year 3 PV (M)101.35104.31107.33
Year 4 PV (M)119.78124.47129.28
Year 5 PV (M)136.79143.50150.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,153.493,308.353,469.22
Equity Value (M)3,652.743,824.104,001.96
Shares Outstanding (M)24.1924.1924.19
Fair Value$151.00$158.09$165.44
Upside / Downside249.14%265.52%282.52%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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