Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $83.75 - $222.16 | $128.06 |
| Multi-Stage | $58.90 - $64.27 | $61.53 |
| Blended Fair Value | $94.80 | |
| Current Price | $44.55 | |
| Upside | 112.79% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 12.25% | 10.77% | 1.74 | 1.57 | 1.37 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 0.98 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 10.94% | 14.35% | 3.34% | 4.55% | 30.00% | 41.33% | 8.60% | 6.97% | -4.74% | -0.24% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.44% | 4.28% | 5.15% | 3.08% | 3.39% | 6.58% | 2.63% | 2.00% | 2.34% | 3.74% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,412.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,155.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,257.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 482.40 | 301.50 | 180.90 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,257.00 | 1,257.00 | 1,257.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -482.40 | -301.50 | -180.90 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 774.60 | 955.50 | 1,076.10 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 675.60 | 675.60 | 675.60 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.15 | 1.41 | 1.59 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.71 | 1.71 | 1.71 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.15 | 1.41 | 1.59 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.86 | 3.12 | 3.30 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $83.75 | $128.06 | $222.16 |
| Upside / Downside | 87.98% | 187.45% | 398.67% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,412.00 | 2,568.78 | 2,735.75 | 2,913.57 | 3,102.96 | 3,304.65 | 3,403.79 |
| Payout Ratio | 47.89% | 56.31% | 64.73% | 73.15% | 81.58% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,155.00 | 1,446.44 | 1,770.89 | 2,131.40 | 2,531.30 | 2,974.18 | 3,148.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,313.37 | 1,325.82 | 1,338.27 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,460.03 | 1,487.84 | 1,515.92 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,595.60 | 1,641.40 | 1,688.08 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,720.63 | 1,786.80 | 1,854.87 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,835.69 | 1,924.35 | 2,016.41 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 31,867.44 | 33,406.65 | 35,004.77 |
| Equity Value (M) | 39,792.76 | 41,572.87 | 43,418.30 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 675.60 | 675.60 | 675.60 |
| Fair Value | $58.90 | $61.53 | $64.27 |
| Upside / Downside | 32.21% | 38.12% | 44.26% |
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