Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $410.05 - $1,090.36 | $1,021.83 |
| Multi-Stage | $155.02 - $169.64 | $162.20 |
| Blended Fair Value | $592.01 | |
| Current Price | $30.04 | |
| Upside | 1,870.74% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 16.96% | 6.51% | 2.70 | 2.80 | 1.86 | 1.81 | 1.78 | 1.23 | 1.54 | 1.59 | 1.81 | 1.55 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -3.46% | 50.20% | 2.61% | 1.88% | 44.36% | -19.96% | -2.99% | -12.28% | 16.99% | 7.72% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.93% | 8.52% | 6.51% | 7.62% | 6.99% | 6.26% | 7.17% | 8.14% | 8.65% | 7.09% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 4,371.36 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,744.12 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,627.24 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 874.27 | 546.42 | 327.85 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,627.24 | 2,627.24 | 2,627.24 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -874.27 | -546.42 | -327.85 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,752.97 | 2,080.82 | 2,299.39 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 797.31 | 797.31 | 797.31 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.20 | 2.61 | 2.88 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.19 | 2.19 | 2.19 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.20 | 2.61 | 2.88 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.39 | 4.80 | 5.07 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.63% | 6.63% | 6.63% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $410.05 | $1,021.83 | $1,090.36 |
| Upside / Downside | 1,265.01% | 3,301.55% | 3,529.69% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 4,371.36 | 4,655.50 | 4,958.11 | 5,280.38 | 5,623.61 | 5,989.14 | 6,168.82 |
| Payout Ratio | 39.90% | 49.92% | 59.94% | 69.96% | 79.98% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,744.12 | 2,323.98 | 2,971.85 | 3,694.13 | 4,497.75 | 5,390.23 | 5,706.16 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.63% | 6.63% | 6.63% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 2,159.05 | 2,179.51 | 2,199.97 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2,564.99 | 2,613.85 | 2,663.17 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2,962.11 | 3,047.14 | 3,133.78 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,350.53 | 3,479.38 | 3,611.92 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,730.40 | 3,910.58 | 4,097.65 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 108,834.38 | 114,091.12 | 119,549.05 |
| Equity Value (M) | 123,601.45 | 129,321.58 | 135,255.54 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 797.31 | 797.31 | 797.31 |
| Fair Value | $155.02 | $162.20 | $169.64 |
| Upside / Downside | 416.05% | 439.94% | 464.71% |
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