Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $45.99 - $150.47 | $74.67 |
| Multi-Stage | $30.17 - $32.95 | $31.54 |
| Blended Fair Value | $53.10 | |
| Current Price | $22.61 | |
| Upside | 134.86% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 14.19% | 21.50% | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.90% | 3.40% | -2.70% | 50.00% | 29.82% | 23.02% | 73.96% | 25.83% | 17.72% | 13.89% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.29% | 4.30% | 3.50% | 2.72% | 2.52% | 4.08% | 1.85% | 0.82% | 0.66% | 0.79% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 886.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 305.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 581.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 177.20 | 110.75 | 66.45 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 581.00 | 581.00 | 581.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -177.20 | -110.75 | -66.45 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 403.80 | 470.25 | 514.55 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 520.25 | 520.25 | 520.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.78 | 0.90 | 0.99 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.78 | 0.90 | 0.99 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.36 | 1.49 | 1.58 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.63% | 8.63% | 8.63% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $45.99 | $74.67 | $150.47 |
| Upside / Downside | 103.40% | 230.24% | 565.50% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 886.00 | 943.59 | 1,004.92 | 1,070.24 | 1,139.81 | 1,213.90 | 1,250.31 |
| Payout Ratio | 34.42% | 45.54% | 56.65% | 67.77% | 78.88% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 305.00 | 429.71 | 569.34 | 725.30 | 899.14 | 1,092.51 | 1,156.54 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.63% | 8.63% | 8.63% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 391.87 | 395.59 | 399.30 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 473.49 | 482.51 | 491.61 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 550.09 | 565.88 | 581.97 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 621.89 | 645.80 | 670.40 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 689.10 | 722.38 | 756.94 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 12,967.61 | 13,593.95 | 14,244.26 |
| Equity Value (M) | 15,694.04 | 16,406.10 | 17,144.48 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 520.25 | 520.25 | 520.25 |
| Fair Value | $30.17 | $31.54 | $32.95 |
| Upside / Downside | 33.42% | 39.47% | 45.75% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
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