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Definitive Analysis

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First Financial Bankshares, Inc. (FFIN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.08 - $127.58$68.06
Multi-Stage$29.20 - $31.88$30.52
Blended Fair Value$49.29
Current Price$33.65
Upside46.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.01%11.52%0.720.700.640.560.490.430.380.340.310.27
YoY Growth--2.95%9.47%14.56%13.36%15.17%13.36%10.02%9.01%15.84%12.11%
Dividend Yield--2.00%2.17%2.00%1.26%1.05%1.59%1.27%1.48%1.57%1.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)242.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.5230.3218.19
Cash Retained (M)139.61139.61139.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.52-30.32-18.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.09109.29121.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)143.10143.10143.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.760.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.760.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.481.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$43.08$68.06$127.58
Upside / Downside28.02%102.25%279.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)242.59258.36275.15293.04312.09332.37342.34
Payout Ratio42.45%51.96%61.47%70.98%80.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.98134.24169.14208.00251.20299.13316.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)122.20123.36124.52
Year 2 PV (M)140.16142.83145.52
Year 3 PV (M)156.90161.41166.00
Year 4 PV (M)172.49179.13185.95
Year 5 PV (M)186.99196.02205.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,400.403,564.643,735.17
Equity Value (M)4,179.154,367.384,562.55
Shares Outstanding (M)143.10143.10143.10
Fair Value$29.20$30.52$31.88
Upside / Downside-13.21%-9.30%-5.25%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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