Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $10.05 - $17.54 | $13.25 |
| Multi-Stage | $19.39 - $21.27 | $20.31 |
| Blended Fair Value | $16.78 | |
| Current Price | $4.00 | |
| Upside | 319.55% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -15.06% | -1.03% | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -36.59% | -18.97% | -4.20% | 1.34% | -11.38% | -0.23% | 14.82% | 3.79% | 32.22% | 29.74% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.36% | 9.74% | 9.76% | 7.39% | 5.52% | 5.79% | 4.14% | 2.81% | 4.21% | 3.04% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 68.40 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 58.70 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 9.70 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 13.68 | 8.55 | 5.13 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 9.70 | 9.70 | 9.70 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -13.68 | -8.55 | -5.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -3.98 | 1.15 | 4.57 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 88.44 | 88.44 | 88.44 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.62 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | 0.14% | 1.14% | 2.14% |
| Fair Value | $10.05 | $13.25 | $17.54 |
| Upside / Downside | 151.25% | 231.28% | 338.57% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 68.40 | 69.18 | 69.97 | 70.77 | 71.58 | 72.40 | 74.57 |
| Payout Ratio | 85.82% | 86.65% | 87.49% | 88.33% | 89.16% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 58.70 | 59.95 | 61.22 | 62.51 | 63.82 | 65.16 | 68.98 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | 0.14% | 1.14% | 2.14% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 55.83 | 56.39 | 56.95 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 53.10 | 54.17 | 55.25 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 50.50 | 52.03 | 53.59 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 48.02 | 49.97 | 51.98 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 45.66 | 47.99 | 50.41 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,461.43 | 1,535.87 | 1,613.31 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,714.55 | 1,796.42 | 1,881.48 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 88.44 | 88.44 | 88.44 |
| Fair Value | $19.39 | $20.31 | $21.27 |
| Upside / Downside | 384.69% | 407.83% | 431.87% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
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| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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