Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Analysis Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.27 - $44.61$31.83
Multi-Stage$18.28 - $19.92$19.09
Blended Fair Value$25.46
Current Price$39.22
Upside-35.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.34%-4.03%0.600.600.600.230.050.200.150.000.000.42
YoY Growth--0.23%-0.35%161.63%353.42%-74.91%33.49%10,800.00%-66.67%-99.01%-53.64%
Dividend Yield--1.58%1.26%1.47%0.46%0.15%2.99%1.15%0.01%0.03%4.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,066.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)865.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,201.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)413.20258.25154.95
Cash Retained (M)1,201.001,201.001,201.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-413.20-258.25-154.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)787.80942.751,046.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,444.001,444.001,444.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.650.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.650.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.141.251.32
WACC / Discount Rate10.69%10.69%10.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.27$31.83$44.61
Upside / Downside-40.66%-18.85%13.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,066.002,200.292,343.312,495.622,657.842,830.602,915.52
Payout Ratio41.87%51.49%61.12%70.75%80.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)865.001,133.031,432.251,765.592,136.202,547.542,696.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.69%10.69%10.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,014.011,023.621,033.23
Year 2 PV (M)1,147.141,168.991,191.05
Year 3 PV (M)1,265.571,301.901,338.92
Year 4 PV (M)1,370.371,423.071,477.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,462.561,533.211,606.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,136.6621,109.2622,119.10
Equity Value (M)26,396.3127,560.0528,766.12
Shares Outstanding (M)1,444.001,444.001,444.00
Fair Value$18.28$19.09$19.92
Upside / Downside-53.39%-51.34%-49.21%

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