Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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First Choice Bancorp (FCBP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.62 - $35.11$29.10
Multi-Stage$44.27 - $48.68$46.43
Blended Fair Value$37.77
Current Price$24.31
Upside55.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%1.000.850.650.490.000.000.070.030.000.00
YoY Growth--17.85%30.89%31.62%0.00%0.00%-100.00%104.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.11%5.65%3.01%1.82%0.00%0.00%0.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.834.272.56
Cash Retained (M)22.4322.4322.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.83-4.27-2.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.6018.1619.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.7011.7011.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.331.551.70
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.331.551.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.342.562.70
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$23.62$29.10$35.11
Upside / Downside-2.84%19.70%44.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34.1633.8233.4833.1532.8232.4933.46
Payout Ratio34.34%45.47%56.60%67.74%78.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.7315.3818.9522.4525.8829.2430.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)14.1414.2814.42
Year 2 PV (M)16.0116.3416.67
Year 3 PV (M)17.4417.9818.53
Year 4 PV (M)18.4719.2420.03
Year 5 PV (M)19.1820.1821.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)432.51455.03478.48
Equity Value (M)517.75543.05569.36
Shares Outstanding (M)11.7011.7011.70
Fair Value$44.27$46.43$48.68
Upside / Downside82.10%91.00%100.25%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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