Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Falabella S.A. (FALABELLA.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,022.00 - $6,619.21$5,176.27
Multi-Stage$4,274.21 - $4,674.49$4,470.66
Blended Fair Value$4,823.46
Current Price$4,950.00
Upside-2.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.44%-10.41%23.773.60102.0237.0943.0684.7261.4485.7285.9078.68
YoY Growth--560.30%-96.47%175.04%-13.85%-49.17%37.89%-28.33%-0.21%9.18%10.26%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.14%5.58%1.47%1.32%4.49%1.22%1.48%1.55%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)863,843.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)221,686.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)642,157.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)172,768.78107,980.4964,788.29
Cash Retained (M)642,157.70642,157.70642,157.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-172,768.78-107,980.49-64,788.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)469,388.92534,177.22577,369.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,508.852,508.852,508.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share187.09212.92230.13
LTM Dividend per Share88.3688.3688.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share187.09212.92230.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend275.46301.28318.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Fair Value$4,022.00$5,176.27$6,619.21
Upside / Downside-18.75%4.57%33.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)863,843.89897,587.42932,649.03969,080.231,006,934.501,046,267.441,077,655.46
Payout Ratio25.66%38.53%51.40%64.27%77.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)221,686.19345,842.30479,359.75622,780.42776,674.28941,640.70996,831.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Year 1 PV (M)311,506.65314,533.74317,560.83
Year 2 PV (M)388,901.82396,496.91404,165.46
Year 3 PV (M)455,095.52468,492.16482,149.15
Year 4 PV (M)511,205.76531,368.03552,120.91
Year 5 PV (M)558,253.23585,909.91614,652.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,498,367.568,919,389.199,356,934.32
Equity Value (M)10,723,330.5411,216,189.9511,727,582.70
Shares Outstanding (M)2,508.852,508.852,508.85
Fair Value$4,274.21$4,470.66$4,674.49
Upside / Downside-13.65%-9.68%-5.57%

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