Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $24.14 - $57.01 | $35.57 |
| Multi-Stage | $28.50 - $31.22 | $29.84 |
| Blended Fair Value | $32.70 | |
| Current Price | $11.96 | |
| Upside | 173.43% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 5.47% | 4.79% | 0.78 | 1.24 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.60 | 0.72 | 0.64 | 0.84 | 0.59 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -37.58% | 148.63% | 398.51% | -32.38% | -75.05% | -17.76% | 12.42% | -23.46% | 41.85% | 21.93% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.74% | 9.36% | 3.97% | 0.59% | 1.21% | 12.32% | 8.06% | 5.81% | 7.22% | 4.39% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 4,706.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,986.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,720.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 941.20 | 588.25 | 352.95 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,720.00 | 1,720.00 | 1,720.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -941.20 | -588.25 | -352.95 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 778.80 | 1,131.75 | 1,367.05 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,014.63 | 4,014.63 | 4,014.63 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.94 | 1.03 | 1.08 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.79% | 6.79% | 6.79% |
| Growth Rate | 2.79% | 3.79% | 4.79% |
| Fair Value | $24.14 | $35.57 | $57.01 |
| Upside / Downside | 101.85% | 197.39% | 376.67% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 4,706.00 | 4,884.58 | 5,069.94 | 5,262.33 | 5,462.03 | 5,669.30 | 5,839.38 |
| Payout Ratio | 63.45% | 68.76% | 74.07% | 79.38% | 84.69% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,986.00 | 3,358.67 | 3,755.33 | 4,177.26 | 4,625.80 | 5,102.37 | 5,401.42 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.79% | 6.79% | 6.79% |
| Growth Rate | 2.79% | 3.79% | 4.79% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,114.88 | 3,145.18 | 3,175.48 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 3,229.95 | 3,293.09 | 3,356.85 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 3,332.05 | 3,430.24 | 3,530.35 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,422.00 | 3,557.12 | 3,696.20 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,500.57 | 3,674.19 | 3,854.62 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 97,830.54 | 102,682.57 | 107,725.23 |
| Equity Value (M) | 114,430.00 | 119,782.40 | 125,338.73 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,014.63 | 4,014.63 | 4,014.63 |
| Fair Value | $28.50 | $29.84 | $31.22 |
| Upside / Downside | 138.32% | 149.47% | 161.04% |
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