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Definitive Analysis

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Essex Property Trust, Inc. (ESS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - ResidentialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$174.47 - $304.59$230.05
Multi-Stage$224.77 - $245.68$235.03
Blended Fair Value$232.54
Current Price$267.66
Upside-13.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.09%9.06%9.649.128.808.448.337.897.537.006.395.71
YoY Growth--5.71%3.72%4.25%1.26%5.58%4.87%7.45%9.61%11.95%40.94%
Dividend Yield--3.15%3.81%4.21%2.44%3.07%3.58%2.61%2.91%2.76%2.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)846.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)646.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)200.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.31105.8263.49
Cash Retained (M)200.54200.54200.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.31-105.82-63.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.2394.72137.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.3464.3464.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.491.472.13
LTM Dividend per Share10.0410.0410.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.491.472.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.5311.5112.17
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate2.09%3.09%4.09%
Fair Value$174.47$230.05$304.59
Upside / Downside-34.82%-14.05%13.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)846.55872.71899.69927.50956.16985.721,015.29
Payout Ratio76.31%79.05%81.79%84.52%87.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)646.01689.87735.82783.96834.37887.15939.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate2.09%3.09%4.09%
Year 1 PV (M)631.11637.29643.48
Year 2 PV (M)615.82627.94640.18
Year 3 PV (M)600.22618.03636.19
Year 4 PV (M)584.41607.64631.57
Year 5 PV (M)568.45596.84626.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,462.4012,034.8912,630.03
Equity Value (M)14,462.4115,122.6415,807.80
Shares Outstanding (M)64.3464.3464.34
Fair Value$224.77$235.03$245.68
Upside / Downside-16.02%-12.19%-8.21%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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