Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - SpecialtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$245.25 - $1,356.28$471.81
Multi-Stage$139.35 - $152.46$145.78
Blended Fair Value$308.80
Current Price$63.56
Upside385.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.10%0.00%1.151.030.890.750.670.280.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.13%15.29%18.53%11.98%136.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.75%2.23%1.83%1.42%1.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)702.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)121.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)580.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)140.5887.8652.72
Cash Retained (M)580.92580.92580.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-140.58-87.86-52.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)440.34493.06528.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.07103.07103.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.274.785.12
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.274.785.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.465.976.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$245.25$471.81$1,356.28
Upside / Downside285.85%642.31%2,033.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)702.89748.57797.23849.05904.24963.02991.91
Payout Ratio17.35%31.88%46.41%60.94%75.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)121.97238.66370.01517.42682.44866.71917.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)219.22221.30223.38
Year 2 PV (M)312.18318.12324.13
Year 3 PV (M)400.99412.50424.23
Year 4 PV (M)485.78504.46523.68
Year 5 PV (M)566.70594.07622.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,377.0412,974.8613,595.56
Equity Value (M)14,361.9115,025.3115,713.45
Shares Outstanding (M)103.07103.07103.07
Fair Value$139.35$145.78$152.46
Upside / Downside119.24%129.36%139.87%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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