Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $263.40 - $938.21 | $437.08 |
| Multi-Stage | $174.25 - $190.13 | $182.05 |
| Blended Fair Value | $309.57 | |
| Current Price | $205.24 | |
| Upside | 50.83% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 15.36% | 8.97% | 5.58 | 5.33 | 5.00 | 4.77 | 1.72 | 2.73 | 3.14 | 2.66 | 2.37 | 2.27 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 4.79% | 6.54% | 4.76% | 177.89% | -37.14% | -13.08% | 18.28% | 12.33% | 4.06% | -3.84% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.72% | 3.41% | 3.22% | 3.83% | 1.15% | 3.15% | 2.59% | 2.33% | 2.79% | 3.71% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,100.10 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 667.60 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 432.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 220.02 | 137.51 | 82.51 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 432.50 | 432.50 | 432.50 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -220.02 | -137.51 | -82.51 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 212.48 | 294.99 | 349.99 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 117.95 | 117.95 | 117.95 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.80 | 2.50 | 2.97 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.66 | 5.66 | 5.66 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.80 | 2.50 | 2.97 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 7.46 | 8.16 | 8.63 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.49% | 8.49% | 8.49% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $263.40 | $437.08 | $938.21 |
| Upside / Downside | 28.34% | 112.96% | 357.13% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,100.10 | 1,171.61 | 1,247.76 | 1,328.87 | 1,415.24 | 1,507.23 | 1,552.45 |
| Payout Ratio | 60.69% | 66.55% | 72.41% | 78.27% | 84.14% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 667.60 | 779.68 | 903.52 | 1,040.16 | 1,190.74 | 1,356.51 | 1,436.02 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.49% | 8.49% | 8.49% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 711.93 | 718.68 | 725.43 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 753.31 | 767.66 | 782.15 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 791.88 | 814.61 | 837.77 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 827.74 | 859.57 | 892.32 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 861.03 | 902.62 | 945.80 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 16,607.34 | 17,409.48 | 18,242.32 |
| Equity Value (M) | 20,553.23 | 21,472.62 | 22,425.77 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 117.95 | 117.95 | 117.95 |
| Fair Value | $174.25 | $182.05 | $190.13 |
| Upside / Downside | -15.10% | -11.30% | -7.36% |
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