Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $17.65 - $83.66 | $38.74 |
| Multi-Stage | $9.94 - $10.84 | $10.38 |
| Blended Fair Value | $24.56 | |
| Current Price | $4.90 | |
| Upside | 401.31% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.57% | -0.51% | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -32.99% | 54.71% | 18.11% | 60.71% | -16.02% | 39.01% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -31.34% | -8.97% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.89% | 12.35% | 6.52% | 5.87% | 4.52% | 6.69% | 3.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 299.29 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 295.27 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 4.02 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 59.86 | 37.41 | 22.45 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 4.02 | 4.02 | 4.02 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -59.86 | -37.41 | -22.45 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -55.84 | -33.39 | -18.43 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 711.50 | 711.50 | 711.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.03 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.03 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.34 | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.51% | 7.51% | 7.51% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $17.65 | $38.74 | $83.66 |
| Upside / Downside | 260.16% | 690.70% | 1,607.26% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 299.29 | 318.74 | 339.46 | 361.53 | 385.02 | 410.05 | 422.35 |
| Payout Ratio | 98.66% | 96.93% | 95.19% | 93.46% | 91.73% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 295.27 | 308.95 | 323.15 | 337.89 | 353.19 | 369.05 | 390.68 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.51% | 7.51% | 7.51% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 284.66 | 287.36 | 290.06 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 274.34 | 279.57 | 284.84 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 264.31 | 271.90 | 279.63 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 254.56 | 264.35 | 274.42 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 245.08 | 256.92 | 269.21 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 5,750.54 | 6,028.29 | 6,316.67 |
| Equity Value (M) | 7,073.50 | 7,388.39 | 7,714.84 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 711.50 | 711.50 | 711.50 |
| Fair Value | $9.94 | $10.38 | $10.84 |
| Upside / Downside | 102.89% | 111.92% | 121.29% |
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
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