Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $9.39 - $13.39 | $11.36 |
| Multi-Stage | $15.63 - $17.17 | $16.39 |
| Blended Fair Value | $13.87 | |
| Current Price | $7.31 | |
| Upside | 89.78% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -14.48% | -11.19% | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.00% | -100.00% | -7.93% | -8.18% | -0.45% | -5.41% | -9.76% | -6.78% | -16.11% | 0.02% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.63% | 0.00% | 5.88% | 3.98% | 4.84% | 4.49% | 5.67% | 5.39% | 5.49% | 6.65% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 28.99 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 8.59 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 20.40 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 5.80 | 3.62 | 2.17 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 20.40 | 20.40 | 20.40 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -5.80 | -3.62 | -2.17 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 14.60 | 16.78 | 18.23 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 20.76 | 20.76 | 20.76 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.70 | 0.81 | 0.88 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.70 | 0.81 | 0.88 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.12 | 1.22 | 1.29 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.50% | -1.50% | -0.50% |
| Fair Value | $9.39 | $11.36 | $13.39 |
| Upside / Downside | 28.51% | 55.40% | 83.24% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 28.99 | 28.56 | 28.13 | 27.71 | 27.29 | 26.88 | 27.69 |
| Payout Ratio | 29.64% | 41.71% | 53.78% | 65.86% | 77.93% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 8.59 | 11.91 | 15.13 | 18.25 | 21.27 | 24.20 | 25.61 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.50% | -1.50% | -0.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 10.81 | 10.92 | 11.03 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 12.45 | 12.71 | 12.97 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 13.63 | 14.05 | 14.49 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 14.41 | 15.01 | 15.63 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 14.88 | 15.66 | 16.47 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 258.26 | 271.78 | 285.85 |
| Equity Value (M) | 324.44 | 340.13 | 356.44 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 20.76 | 20.76 | 20.76 |
| Fair Value | $15.63 | $16.39 | $17.17 |
| Upside / Downside | 113.82% | 124.16% | 134.91% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
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