Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $35.82 - $64.31 | $47.76 |
| Multi-Stage | $36.88 - $40.34 | $38.58 |
| Blended Fair Value | $43.17 | |
| Current Price | $19.39 | |
| Upside | 122.64% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 7.12% | 5.28% | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 3.69% | 6.78% | 7.35% | 12.51% | 5.49% | 2.77% | 5.65% | 5.23% | -2.55% | 6.48% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.39% | 4.62% | 3.93% | 4.17% | 3.35% | 3.10% | 3.45% | 2.75% | 2.34% | 2.95% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 86.15 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 24.86 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 61.30 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 17.23 | 10.77 | 6.46 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 61.30 | 61.30 | 61.30 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -17.23 | -10.77 | -6.46 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 44.06 | 50.53 | 54.83 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 34.13 | 34.13 | 34.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.29 | 1.48 | 1.61 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.29 | 1.48 | 1.61 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.02 | 2.21 | 2.34 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 3.28% | 4.28% | 5.28% |
| Fair Value | $35.82 | $47.76 | $64.31 |
| Upside / Downside | 84.74% | 146.32% | 231.67% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 86.15 | 89.84 | 93.68 | 97.68 | 101.86 | 106.22 | 109.40 |
| Payout Ratio | 28.85% | 41.08% | 53.31% | 65.54% | 77.77% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 24.86 | 36.91 | 49.94 | 64.02 | 79.22 | 95.59 | 101.20 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 3.28% | 4.28% | 5.28% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 33.51 | 33.83 | 34.15 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 41.16 | 41.96 | 42.77 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 47.90 | 49.30 | 50.74 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 53.80 | 55.92 | 58.09 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 58.94 | 61.85 | 64.87 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,023.22 | 1,073.73 | 1,126.21 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,258.53 | 1,316.59 | 1,376.84 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 34.13 | 34.13 | 34.13 |
| Fair Value | $36.88 | $38.58 | $40.34 |
| Upside / Downside | 90.18% | 98.96% | 108.06% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
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| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
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