Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $39.35 - $56.64 | $47.79 |
| Multi-Stage | $65.49 - $71.83 | $68.60 |
| Blended Fair Value | $58.19 | |
| Current Price | $20.01 | |
| Upside | 190.82% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -3.87% | 0.00% | 1.31 | 1.60 | 1.68 | 1.79 | 1.68 | 1.60 | 1.67 | 1.79 | 1.79 | 1.79 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -17.85% | -4.82% | -6.23% | 6.74% | 4.87% | -4.03% | -6.71% | -0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.38% | 9.04% | 8.55% | 6.49% | 5.96% | 6.06% | 7.83% | 6.76% | 7.82% | 7.79% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 114.41 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 54.98 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 59.44 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 22.88 | 14.30 | 8.58 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 59.44 | 59.44 | 59.44 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -22.88 | -14.30 | -8.58 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 36.55 | 45.14 | 50.86 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 20.54 | 20.54 | 20.54 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.78 | 2.20 | 2.48 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.68 | 2.68 | 2.68 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.78 | 2.20 | 2.48 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.46 | 4.87 | 5.15 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $39.35 | $47.79 | $56.64 |
| Upside / Downside | 96.67% | 138.83% | 183.05% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 114.41 | 113.27 | 112.14 | 111.02 | 109.91 | 108.81 | 112.07 |
| Payout Ratio | 48.05% | 56.44% | 64.83% | 73.22% | 81.61% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 54.98 | 63.93 | 72.70 | 81.29 | 89.69 | 97.93 | 103.67 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 58.01 | 58.60 | 59.19 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 59.85 | 61.08 | 62.32 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 60.72 | 62.60 | 64.52 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 60.79 | 63.31 | 65.91 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 60.22 | 63.36 | 66.63 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,045.49 | 1,099.93 | 1,156.62 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,345.09 | 1,408.88 | 1,475.18 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 20.54 | 20.54 | 20.54 |
| Fair Value | $65.49 | $68.60 | $71.83 |
| Upside / Downside | 227.30% | 242.82% | 258.95% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
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| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
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