Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Deutz AG (DEZ.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.25 - $32.64$12.60
Multi-Stage$15.57 - $17.16$16.35
Blended Fair Value$14.47
Current Price$7.63
Upside89.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.41%9.67%0.160.140.130.000.000.130.130.060.060.06
YoY Growth--13.23%3.85%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%112.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.31%2.32%2.22%0.00%0.00%3.93%1.71%0.83%0.96%1.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.762.981.79
Cash Retained (M)0.200.200.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.76-2.98-1.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.56-2.78-1.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.21137.21137.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate1.93%1.93%1.93%
Growth Rate-0.29%0.71%1.71%
Fair Value$6.25$12.60$32.64
Upside / Downside-18.07%65.11%327.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.8023.9724.1424.3124.4924.6625.40
Payout Ratio99.16%97.33%95.50%93.66%91.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.6023.3323.0522.7722.4922.2023.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.93%1.93%1.93%
Growth Rate-0.29%0.71%1.71%
Year 1 PV (M)22.6622.8923.12
Year 2 PV (M)21.7522.1922.63
Year 3 PV (M)20.8721.5122.15
Year 4 PV (M)20.0220.8321.67
Year 5 PV (M)19.1920.1821.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,031.802,135.752,243.91
Equity Value (M)2,136.302,243.342,354.68
Shares Outstanding (M)137.21137.21137.21
Fair Value$15.57$16.35$17.16
Upside / Downside104.06%114.29%124.92%

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