Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $11.21 - $17.19 | $14.00 |
| Multi-Stage | $25.61 - $28.12 | $26.84 |
| Blended Fair Value | $20.42 | |
| Current Price | $11.15 | |
| Upside | 83.15% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -9.20% | 0.00% | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.35 | 0.27 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 15.00% | -42.86% | 27.44% | -26.32% | 0.00% | 12.28% | 44.95% | 270.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.50% | 1.39% | 2.07% | 0.94% | 1.56% | 1.46% | 1.95% | 1.27% | 0.44% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 18.18 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 18.03 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 0.15 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 3.64 | 2.27 | 1.36 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -3.64 | -2.27 | -1.36 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -3.49 | -2.12 | -1.21 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 14.66 | 14.66 | 14.66 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.24 | -0.14 | -0.08 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.24 | -0.14 | -0.08 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.99 | 1.09 | 1.15 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.67% | 6.67% | 6.67% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $11.21 | $14.00 | $17.19 |
| Upside / Downside | 0.55% | 25.59% | 54.20% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 18.18 | 18.00 | 17.82 | 17.64 | 17.46 | 17.29 | 17.80 |
| Payout Ratio | 99.18% | 97.34% | 95.51% | 93.67% | 91.84% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 18.03 | 17.52 | 17.01 | 16.52 | 16.04 | 15.56 | 16.47 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.67% | 6.67% | 6.67% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 16.26 | 16.42 | 16.59 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 14.65 | 14.95 | 15.26 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 13.20 | 13.61 | 14.03 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 11.89 | 12.38 | 12.89 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 10.71 | 11.26 | 11.84 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 308.69 | 324.77 | 341.50 |
| Equity Value (M) | 375.40 | 393.40 | 412.11 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 14.66 | 14.66 | 14.66 |
| Fair Value | $25.61 | $26.84 | $28.12 |
| Upside / Downside | 129.70% | 140.71% | 152.16% |
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