Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Count Limited (CUP.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.51 - $175.56$164.53
Multi-Stage$25.78 - $28.24$26.99
Blended Fair Value$95.76
Current Price$0.96
Upside9,926.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS26.33%-2.20%0.060.030.030.020.020.020.020.010.060.07
YoY Growth--97.26%5.77%15.41%20.04%11.29%-21.52%144.67%-83.67%-12.30%-9.51%
Dividend Yield--6.30%5.39%5.34%3.47%2.08%2.09%2.80%1.47%10.37%9.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)118.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.6714.808.88
Cash Retained (M)108.00108.00108.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.67-14.80-8.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)84.3393.2099.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)134.08134.08134.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.770.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$78.51$164.53$175.56
Upside / Downside8,120.88%17,128.03%18,283.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)118.37126.06134.25142.98152.28162.17167.04
Payout Ratio8.76%25.01%41.26%57.50%73.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.3731.5255.3982.22112.31145.96154.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.3429.6129.89
Year 2 PV (M)47.9748.8849.80
Year 3 PV (M)66.2668.1670.10
Year 4 PV (M)84.2387.4790.80
Year 5 PV (M)101.87106.79111.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,126.583,277.593,434.39
Equity Value (M)3,456.243,618.503,786.88
Shares Outstanding (M)134.08134.08134.08
Fair Value$25.78$26.99$28.24
Upside / Downside2,599.11%2,725.83%2,857.32%

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