Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Corporate Travel Management Limited (CTD.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$79.75 - $238.70$223.70
Multi-Stage$32.79 - $35.86$34.30
Blended Fair Value$129.00
Current Price$13.25
Upside873.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.73%20.11%0.390.110.000.000.160.310.260.210.140.09
YoY Growth--254.33%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-47.09%20.82%22.80%45.42%55.17%48.13%
Dividend Yield--2.92%0.62%0.00%0.00%1.75%1.41%0.97%0.94%1.07%0.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)174.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)83.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)91.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.9221.8213.09
Cash Retained (M)91.4791.4791.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.92-21.82-13.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.5569.6478.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)145.46145.46145.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.480.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.480.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$79.75$223.70$238.70
Upside / Downside501.91%1,588.27%1,701.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)174.59185.94198.02210.89224.60239.20246.38
Payout Ratio47.61%56.09%64.57%73.04%81.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)83.12104.29127.86154.05183.10215.28227.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)96.7697.6898.59
Year 2 PV (M)110.06112.16114.27
Year 3 PV (M)123.03126.56130.16
Year 4 PV (M)135.68140.89146.26
Year 5 PV (M)148.00155.15162.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,155.714,356.444,564.84
Equity Value (M)4,769.244,988.885,216.70
Shares Outstanding (M)145.46145.46145.46
Fair Value$32.79$34.30$35.86
Upside / Downside147.45%158.84%170.67%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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