Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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CPFL Energia S.A. (CPFE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$510.67 - $940.68$881.56
Multi-Stage$150.03 - $164.14$156.95
Blended Fair Value$519.25
Current Price$39.40
Upside1,217.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.48%13.09%3.023.103.363.731.840.460.280.290.200.00
YoY Growth---2.54%-7.80%-9.91%103.11%296.28%65.77%-4.38%45.39%4,353.29%-99.49%
Dividend Yield--8.01%8.95%10.62%11.56%6.04%1.72%0.94%1.17%0.78%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,450.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,070.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,380.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,090.03681.27408.76
Cash Retained (M)2,380.052,380.052,380.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,090.03-681.27-408.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,290.011,698.771,971.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.251,152.251,152.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.471.71
LTM Dividend per Share2.662.662.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.471.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.784.144.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$510.67$881.56$940.68
Upside / Downside1,196.11%2,137.45%2,287.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,450.175,804.436,181.726,583.537,011.467,467.217,691.23
Payout Ratio56.33%63.06%69.80%76.53%83.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,070.133,660.554,314.755,038.535,838.186,720.497,114.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,411.853,444.193,476.53
Year 2 PV (M)3,748.383,819.783,891.85
Year 3 PV (M)4,079.784,196.894,316.23
Year 4 PV (M)4,406.104,575.544,749.83
Year 5 PV (M)4,727.394,955.735,192.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)152,494.05159,859.57167,506.99
Equity Value (M)172,867.55180,851.71189,134.23
Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.251,152.251,152.25
Fair Value$150.03$156.95$164.14
Upside / Downside280.78%298.36%316.61%

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