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Definitive Analysis

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Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Equipment & ServicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.10 - $13.31$11.13
Multi-Stage$15.65 - $17.21$16.42
Blended Fair Value$13.77
Current Price$20.93
Upside-34.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%12.080.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--25,081.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--55.67%0.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)153.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)121.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.6519.1611.49
Cash Retained (M)121.25121.25121.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.65-19.16-11.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)90.60102.10109.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)127.78127.78127.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.800.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.800.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.10$11.13$13.31
Upside / Downside-56.52%-46.82%-36.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)153.24151.71150.19148.69147.20145.73150.10
Payout Ratio20.88%34.70%48.53%62.35%76.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.9952.6472.8892.71112.13131.16138.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)48.1048.6049.09
Year 2 PV (M)60.8562.1063.36
Year 3 PV (M)70.7372.9275.15
Year 4 PV (M)78.1781.4184.75
Year 5 PV (M)83.5587.9092.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,658.501,744.861,834.78
Equity Value (M)1,999.912,097.792,199.57
Shares Outstanding (M)127.78127.78127.78
Fair Value$15.65$16.42$17.21
Upside / Downside-25.22%-21.56%-17.76%

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