Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $142.36 - $247.11 | $187.28 |
| Multi-Stage | $264.50 - $290.91 | $277.45 |
| Blended Fair Value | $232.36 | |
| Current Price | $38.00 | |
| Upside | 511.48% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -1.04% | 1.24% | 1.37 | 1.81 | 1.12 | 1.56 | 1.46 | 1.44 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.32 | 1.20 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -24.46% | 61.90% | -28.40% | 6.72% | 1.55% | 6.31% | -0.76% | 3.51% | 9.92% | -0.66% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.60% | 4.31% | 4.15% | 4.16% | 2.88% | 2.92% | 2.08% | 3.04% | 2.87% | 2.34% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,388.20 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 397.60 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 990.60 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 277.64 | 173.53 | 104.12 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 990.60 | 990.60 | 990.60 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -277.64 | -173.53 | -104.12 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 712.96 | 817.08 | 886.49 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 125.15 | 125.15 | 125.15 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 5.70 | 6.53 | 7.08 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.18 | 3.18 | 3.18 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 5.70 | 6.53 | 7.08 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 8.87 | 9.71 | 10.26 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.33% | 6.33% | 6.33% |
| Growth Rate | 0.09% | 1.09% | 2.09% |
| Fair Value | $142.36 | $187.28 | $247.11 |
| Upside / Downside | 274.62% | 392.83% | 550.28% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,388.20 | 1,403.30 | 1,418.56 | 1,433.99 | 1,449.59 | 1,465.36 | 1,509.32 |
| Payout Ratio | 28.64% | 40.91% | 53.18% | 65.46% | 77.73% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 397.60 | 574.13 | 754.46 | 938.64 | 1,126.74 | 1,318.82 | 1,396.12 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.33% | 6.33% | 6.33% |
| Growth Rate | 0.09% | 1.09% | 2.09% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 534.63 | 539.97 | 545.31 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 654.21 | 667.35 | 680.62 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 757.92 | 780.87 | 804.27 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 847.21 | 881.57 | 916.98 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 923.40 | 970.46 | 1,019.42 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 29,385.97 | 30,883.60 | 32,441.69 |
| Equity Value (M) | 33,103.34 | 34,723.83 | 36,408.30 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 125.15 | 125.15 | 125.15 |
| Fair Value | $264.50 | $277.45 | $290.91 |
| Upside / Downside | 596.05% | 630.12% | 665.54% |
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