Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $44.36 - $75.99 | $58.05 |
| Multi-Stage | $81.10 - $89.04 | $85.00 |
| Blended Fair Value | $71.52 | |
| Current Price | $79.94 | |
| Upside | -10.53% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 2.08% | 2.15% | 2.19 | 2.14 | 2.07 | 2.05 | 1.84 | 1.97 | 1.95 | 1.87 | 1.84 | 1.83 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 2.29% | 3.43% | 0.71% | 11.78% | -6.94% | 1.45% | 4.05% | 1.39% | 1.00% | 3.25% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.33% | 2.40% | 2.75% | 2.71% | 2.33% | 2.97% | 2.85% | 2.61% | 2.52% | 2.58% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,907.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,814.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,093.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 581.40 | 363.38 | 218.03 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,093.00 | 1,093.00 | 1,093.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -581.40 | -363.38 | -218.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 511.60 | 729.63 | 874.98 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 817.92 | 817.92 | 817.92 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.63 | 0.89 | 1.07 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.22 | 2.22 | 2.22 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.63 | 0.89 | 1.07 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.84 | 3.11 | 3.29 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.57% | 6.57% | 6.57% |
| Growth Rate | 0.15% | 1.15% | 2.15% |
| Fair Value | $44.36 | $58.05 | $75.99 |
| Upside / Downside | -44.51% | -27.39% | -4.94% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,907.00 | 2,940.47 | 2,974.33 | 3,008.57 | 3,043.21 | 3,078.25 | 3,170.60 |
| Payout Ratio | 62.40% | 67.92% | 73.44% | 78.96% | 84.48% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,814.00 | 1,997.19 | 2,184.36 | 2,375.58 | 2,570.91 | 2,770.43 | 2,932.80 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.57% | 6.57% | 6.57% |
| Growth Rate | 0.15% | 1.15% | 2.15% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,855.53 | 1,874.06 | 1,892.58 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,885.47 | 1,923.31 | 1,961.53 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,905.08 | 1,962.71 | 2,021.50 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,915.48 | 1,993.13 | 2,073.13 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,917.71 | 2,015.38 | 2,117.00 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 56,855.04 | 59,750.74 | 62,763.25 |
| Equity Value (M) | 66,334.30 | 69,519.34 | 72,828.99 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 817.92 | 817.92 | 817.92 |
| Fair Value | $81.10 | $85.00 | $89.04 |
| Upside / Downside | 1.45% | 6.32% | 11.39% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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