Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $13.36 - $19.44 | $16.30 |
| Multi-Stage | $23.77 - $26.05 | $24.89 |
| Blended Fair Value | $20.60 | |
| Current Price | $6.45 | |
| Upside | 219.32% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -4.73% | 0.00% | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.76 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.00% | -20.73% | 0.36% | -1.61% | 0.29% | 0.99% | -2.49% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.70% | 11.49% | 13.42% | 7.24% | 9.83% | 9.40% | 9.97% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 115.18 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 76.64 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 38.54 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 23.04 | 14.40 | 8.64 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 38.54 | 38.54 | 38.54 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -23.04 | -14.40 | -8.64 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 15.50 | 24.14 | 29.90 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 63.86 | 63.86 | 63.86 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.24 | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.24 | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.44 | 1.58 | 1.67 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.58% | 8.58% | 8.58% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $13.36 | $16.30 | $19.44 |
| Upside / Downside | 107.15% | 152.77% | 201.36% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 115.18 | 114.03 | 112.89 | 111.76 | 110.64 | 109.54 | 112.82 |
| Payout Ratio | 66.54% | 71.23% | 75.92% | 80.62% | 85.31% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 76.64 | 81.23 | 85.71 | 90.10 | 94.39 | 98.58 | 104.36 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.58% | 8.58% | 8.58% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 74.05 | 74.81 | 75.56 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 71.24 | 72.70 | 74.17 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 68.27 | 70.38 | 72.53 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 65.20 | 67.90 | 70.69 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 62.08 | 65.31 | 68.68 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,177.16 | 1,238.45 | 1,302.28 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,517.99 | 1,589.55 | 1,663.91 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 63.86 | 63.86 | 63.86 |
| Fair Value | $23.77 | $24.89 | $26.05 |
| Upside / Downside | 268.51% | 285.88% | 303.93% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
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