Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chemed Corporation (CHE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$578.55 - $2,535.12$1,006.91
Multi-Stage$426.11 - $466.94$446.15
Blended Fair Value$726.53
Current Price$447.74
Upside62.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.48%6.63%1.841.601.501.501.431.341.271.181.121.06
YoY Growth--15.28%6.74%0.00%4.45%6.52%6.03%7.43%5.67%5.34%9.47%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.25%0.28%0.30%0.31%0.31%0.39%0.43%0.61%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)278.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)248.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.7634.8520.91
Cash Retained (M)248.11248.11248.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.76-34.85-20.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)192.35213.26227.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.7214.7214.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.0614.4815.43
LTM Dividend per Share2.082.082.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.0614.4815.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.1516.5717.52
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate4.48%5.48%6.48%
Fair Value$578.55$1,006.91$2,535.12
Upside / Downside29.22%124.89%466.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)278.81294.10310.23327.24345.19364.13375.05
Payout Ratio11.01%26.81%42.61%58.40%74.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.6978.84132.17191.12256.14327.71346.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate4.48%5.48%6.48%
Year 1 PV (M)72.8373.5374.23
Year 2 PV (M)112.80114.97117.16
Year 3 PV (M)150.68155.05159.50
Year 4 PV (M)186.56193.80201.26
Year 5 PV (M)220.51231.26242.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,530.805,800.596,080.80
Equity Value (M)6,274.196,569.216,875.39
Shares Outstanding (M)14.7214.7214.72
Fair Value$426.11$446.15$466.94
Upside / Downside-4.83%-0.36%4.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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