Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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City Holding Company (CHCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$194.34 - $491.34$292.75
Multi-Stage$176.83 - $193.56$185.04
Blended Fair Value$238.90
Current Price$123.87
Upside92.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.11%5.91%2.992.752.522.482.522.442.031.861.771.74
YoY Growth--8.72%8.97%1.56%-1.46%3.17%20.16%9.08%5.45%1.64%3.34%
Dividend Yield--2.54%2.66%2.77%3.15%3.08%3.67%2.63%2.72%2.74%3.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)81.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.5115.959.57
Cash Retained (M)81.3081.3081.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.51-15.95-9.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.7965.3571.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.5714.5714.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.834.494.92
LTM Dividend per Share3.183.183.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.834.494.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.017.668.10
WACC / Discount Rate7.66%7.66%7.66%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Fair Value$194.34$292.75$491.34
Upside / Downside56.89%136.34%296.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.57133.83140.41147.30154.53162.12166.98
Payout Ratio36.27%47.02%57.76%68.51%79.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.2762.9281.10100.91122.47145.91154.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.66%7.66%7.66%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Year 1 PV (M)57.8958.4559.01
Year 2 PV (M)68.6569.9871.32
Year 3 PV (M)78.5980.8883.21
Year 4 PV (M)87.7591.1894.70
Year 5 PV (M)96.18100.90105.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,186.592,293.852,405.28
Equity Value (M)2,575.652,695.232,819.32
Shares Outstanding (M)14.5714.5714.57
Fair Value$176.83$185.04$193.56
Upside / Downside42.76%49.38%56.26%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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