Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$217.73 - $537.22$325.42
Multi-Stage$164.87 - $180.06$172.33
Blended Fair Value$248.87
Current Price$126.77
Upside96.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.49%6.66%3.773.623.262.942.812.752.572.242.102.06
YoY Growth--4.36%10.75%11.12%4.54%2.02%6.99%14.76%6.87%2.07%3.92%
Dividend Yield--3.01%3.23%3.10%2.12%2.58%4.94%2.58%2.12%2.36%3.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)637.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)252.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)384.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.4379.6447.79
Cash Retained (M)384.36384.36384.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.43-79.64-47.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)256.93304.72336.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.2664.2664.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.004.745.24
LTM Dividend per Share3.933.933.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.004.745.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.938.689.17
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate5.07%6.07%7.07%
Fair Value$217.73$325.42$537.22
Upside / Downside71.75%156.70%323.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)637.16675.81716.80760.28806.39855.31880.97
Payout Ratio39.68%49.74%59.81%69.87%79.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)252.80336.15428.68531.21644.59769.78814.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate5.07%6.07%7.07%
Year 1 PV (M)305.78308.69311.60
Year 2 PV (M)354.73361.52368.37
Year 3 PV (M)399.87411.39423.14
Year 4 PV (M)441.39458.43475.97
Year 5 PV (M)479.49502.75526.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,612.539,030.279,464.06
Equity Value (M)10,593.7911,073.0511,570.04
Shares Outstanding (M)64.2664.2664.26
Fair Value$164.87$172.33$180.06
Upside / Downside30.05%35.94%42.04%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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