Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $114.72 - $207.71 | $153.48 |
| Multi-Stage | $155.68 - $170.87 | $163.13 |
| Blended Fair Value | $158.31 | |
| Current Price | $67.20 | |
| Upside | 135.57% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 2.41% | 3.62% | 1.79 | 1.85 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.71 | 1.59 | 1.52 | 1.43 | 1.38 | 1.28 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -3.44% | 4.00% | 1.43% | 2.33% | 8.09% | 4.06% | 6.34% | 3.88% | 7.62% | 2.42% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.65% | 3.78% | 3.44% | 3.47% | 3.87% | 3.98% | 2.96% | 2.73% | 2.98% | 3.36% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 26.17 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5.82 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 20.35 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 5.23 | 3.27 | 1.96 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 20.35 | 20.35 | 20.35 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -5.23 | -3.27 | -1.96 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 15.12 | 17.08 | 18.39 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 3.23 | 3.23 | 3.23 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 4.67 | 5.28 | 5.68 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 4.67 | 5.28 | 5.68 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6.47 | 7.08 | 7.48 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.35% | 7.35% | 7.35% |
| Growth Rate | 1.62% | 2.62% | 3.62% |
| Fair Value | $114.72 | $153.48 | $207.71 |
| Upside / Downside | 70.72% | 128.39% | 209.10% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 26.17 | 26.86 | 27.56 | 28.28 | 29.02 | 29.79 | 30.68 |
| Payout Ratio | 22.24% | 35.79% | 49.34% | 62.90% | 76.45% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5.82 | 9.61 | 13.60 | 17.79 | 22.19 | 26.81 | 28.38 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.35% | 7.35% | 7.35% |
| Growth Rate | 1.62% | 2.62% | 3.62% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 8.87 | 8.95 | 9.04 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 11.57 | 11.80 | 12.03 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 13.96 | 14.38 | 14.80 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 16.06 | 16.71 | 17.37 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 17.90 | 18.80 | 19.73 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 435.20 | 457.04 | 479.75 |
| Equity Value (M) | 503.57 | 527.68 | 552.72 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 3.23 | 3.23 | 3.23 |
| Fair Value | $155.68 | $163.13 | $170.87 |
| Upside / Downside | 131.66% | 142.75% | 154.28% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
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| DR0.DE | Deutsche Rohstoff AG | 3.92% | $1.96 | 26.92% |
| SIRIP.BK | Siri Prime Office Property Fund | 3.92% | $0.28 | 44.51% |
| SJR | Shaw Communications Inc. | 3.92% | $1.18 | 80.43% |
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| 4863.KL | Telekom Malaysia Berhad | 3.91% | $0.31 | 59.49% |
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