Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $16.55 - $23.17 | $19.84 |
| Multi-Stage | $49.32 - $54.43 | $51.82 |
| Blended Fair Value | $35.83 | |
| Current Price | $32.00 | |
| Upside | 11.98% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | -16.40% | 0.49 | 0.88 | 0.97 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1.46 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 1.94 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -44.44% | -10.00% | 233.33% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -66.67% | 200.00% | 0.00% | -75.00% | -33.33% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.52% | 3.49% | 1.20% | 1.68% | 3.47% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 5.22 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 3.60 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1.62 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1.04 | 0.65 | 0.39 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.62 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1.04 | -0.65 | -0.39 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 0.57 | 0.97 | 1.23 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.31 | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1.94 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.31 | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.25 | 2.47 | 2.61 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.42% | 6.42% | 6.42% |
| Growth Rate | -6.34% | -5.34% | -4.34% |
| Fair Value | $16.55 | $19.84 | $23.17 |
| Upside / Downside | -48.30% | -37.99% | -27.59% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 5.22 | 4.94 | 4.67 | 4.43 | 4.19 | 3.96 | 4.08 |
| Payout Ratio | 69.00% | 73.20% | 77.40% | 81.60% | 85.80% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 3.60 | 3.62 | 3.62 | 3.61 | 3.59 | 3.57 | 3.78 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.42% | 6.42% | 6.42% |
| Growth Rate | -6.34% | -5.34% | -4.34% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3.36 | 3.40 | 3.43 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 3.13 | 3.19 | 3.26 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.09 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2.69 | 2.80 | 2.92 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2.48 | 2.61 | 2.76 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 76.75 | 80.94 | 85.31 |
| Equity Value (M) | 91.31 | 95.94 | 100.77 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Fair Value | $49.32 | $51.82 | $54.43 |
| Upside / Downside | 54.12% | 61.95% | 70.10% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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