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Definitive Analysis

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Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.25 - $12.01$10.07
Multi-Stage$14.14 - $15.54$14.82
Blended Fair Value$12.45
Current Price$36.51
Upside-65.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.340.290.280.310.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--16.18%4.32%-9.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.15%0.81%1.30%1.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.085.673.40
Cash Retained (M)30.2530.2530.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.08-5.67-3.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.1724.5726.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.9740.9740.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.600.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.600.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.02
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.25$10.07$12.01
Upside / Downside-77.41%-72.42%-67.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.3844.9344.4844.0443.5943.1644.45
Payout Ratio33.35%44.68%56.01%67.34%78.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.1420.0824.9129.6534.3038.8441.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18.3118.5018.68
Year 2 PV (M)20.7321.1521.58
Year 3 PV (M)22.5023.2023.91
Year 4 PV (M)23.7424.7225.74
Year 5 PV (M)24.5225.8027.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)469.52493.97519.43
Equity Value (M)579.32607.34636.47
Shares Outstanding (M)40.9740.9740.97
Fair Value$14.14$14.82$15.54
Upside / Downside-61.27%-59.40%-57.45%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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