Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $101.18 - $266.83 | $154.43 |
| Multi-Stage | $69.93 - $76.37 | $73.09 |
| Blended Fair Value | $113.76 | |
| Current Price | $48.01 | |
| Upside | 136.95% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.24% | 15.54% | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.44 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.19 | 0.99 | 0.84 | 0.64 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.68% | -2.30% | 1.64% | 0.64% | -0.45% | 18.82% | 19.37% | 17.91% | 30.90% | 96.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.24% | 3.80% | 4.16% | 3.16% | 3.44% | 6.14% | 3.41% | 2.49% | 2.24% | 2.27% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 304.81 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 95.11 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 209.70 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 60.96 | 38.10 | 22.86 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 209.70 | 209.70 | 209.70 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -60.96 | -38.10 | -22.86 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 148.74 | 171.60 | 186.84 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 70.34 | 70.34 | 70.34 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.11 | 2.44 | 2.66 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.11 | 2.44 | 2.66 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.47 | 3.79 | 4.01 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.11% | 9.11% | 9.11% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $101.18 | $154.43 | $266.83 |
| Upside / Downside | 110.74% | 221.66% | 455.78% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 304.81 | 324.62 | 345.72 | 368.19 | 392.13 | 417.61 | 430.14 |
| Payout Ratio | 31.20% | 42.96% | 54.72% | 66.48% | 78.24% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 95.11 | 139.46 | 189.18 | 244.78 | 306.80 | 375.85 | 397.88 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.11% | 9.11% | 9.11% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 126.61 | 127.81 | 129.01 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 155.93 | 158.90 | 161.89 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 183.16 | 188.42 | 193.77 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 208.42 | 216.43 | 224.67 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 231.80 | 242.99 | 254.62 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,012.86 | 4,206.69 | 4,407.93 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,918.78 | 5,141.24 | 5,371.90 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 70.34 | 70.34 | 70.34 |
| Fair Value | $69.93 | $73.09 | $76.37 |
| Upside / Downside | 45.66% | 52.25% | 59.08% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
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| SJR | Shaw Communications Inc. | 3.92% | $1.18 | 80.43% |
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