Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$619.91 - $3,232.77$1,248.66
Multi-Stage$340.89 - $373.09$356.70
Blended Fair Value$802.68
Current Price$513.19
Upside56.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.49%9.13%1.941.681.491.371.281.231.111.040.980.90
YoY Growth--14.93%13.13%8.60%6.76%4.40%10.91%6.83%5.50%9.64%11.11%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.43%0.59%0.67%0.65%0.77%0.69%0.95%0.92%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)607.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)529.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.4275.8945.53
Cash Retained (M)529.10529.10529.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.42-75.89-45.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)407.68453.21483.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.3537.3537.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.9212.1412.95
LTM Dividend per Share2.092.092.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.9212.1412.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.0014.2215.04
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$619.91$1,248.66$3,232.77
Upside / Downside20.80%143.31%529.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)607.10646.56688.58733.34781.01831.77856.73
Payout Ratio12.85%28.28%43.71%59.14%74.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.99182.83300.97433.69582.39748.60792.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)168.15169.74171.33
Year 2 PV (M)254.56259.41264.30
Year 3 PV (M)337.35347.03356.90
Year 4 PV (M)416.63432.65449.13
Year 5 PV (M)492.51516.30541.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,062.2811,596.5912,151.35
Equity Value (M)12,731.4813,321.7313,934.02
Shares Outstanding (M)37.3537.3537.35
Fair Value$340.89$356.70$373.09
Upside / Downside-33.57%-30.49%-27.30%

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