Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.15 - $156.81$99.53
Multi-Stage$57.28 - $62.65$59.91
Blended Fair Value$79.72
Current Price$184.37
Upside-56.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.21%7.35%0.960.930.880.870.790.710.700.460.410.38
YoY Growth--3.97%4.81%1.76%9.22%11.57%2.43%51.80%12.50%8.38%-20.68%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.91%1.40%1.61%1.20%1.46%1.37%0.72%0.86%1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)307.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)215.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.4138.3823.03
Cash Retained (M)215.31215.31215.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.41-38.38-23.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)153.90176.93192.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)91.8191.8191.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.681.932.09
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.681.932.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.682.933.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Fair Value$68.15$99.53$156.81
Upside / Downside-63.04%-46.01%-14.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)307.04323.69341.25359.76379.27399.85411.84
Payout Ratio29.87%41.90%53.92%65.95%77.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.73135.63184.02237.26295.74359.86380.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)123.79124.97126.16
Year 2 PV (M)153.30156.25159.23
Year 3 PV (M)180.40185.63190.97
Year 4 PV (M)205.24213.21221.42
Year 5 PV (M)227.94239.07250.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,368.654,581.884,803.34
Equity Value (M)5,259.325,501.015,751.73
Shares Outstanding (M)91.8191.8191.81
Fair Value$57.28$59.91$62.65
Upside / Downside-68.93%-67.50%-66.02%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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