Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation (BVH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$86.39 - $200.03$126.44
Multi-Stage$61.25 - $66.92$64.04
Blended Fair Value$95.24
Current Price$36.68
Upside159.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS25.16%37.44%0.530.000.070.270.230.170.050.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-75.24%21.22%29.79%243.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.95%0.00%0.36%3.08%3.66%1.88%0.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.118.825.29
Cash Retained (M)57.3557.3557.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.11-8.82-5.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.2448.5352.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.9216.9216.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.562.873.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.562.873.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.333.653.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$86.39$126.44$200.03
Upside / Downside135.53%244.70%445.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.5475.1280.0085.2090.7496.6499.54
Payout Ratio18.69%32.96%47.22%61.48%75.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.1924.7637.7752.3868.7386.9892.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22.3822.5922.81
Year 2 PV (M)30.8831.4632.06
Year 3 PV (M)38.7139.8240.95
Year 4 PV (M)45.9147.6849.50
Year 5 PV (M)52.5355.0757.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)846.16887.03929.46
Equity Value (M)1,036.571,083.651,132.48
Shares Outstanding (M)16.9216.9216.92
Fair Value$61.25$64.04$66.92
Upside / Downside66.99%74.58%82.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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